Page 24 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 16

2. MODELLING AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

A major task in an informed and evidence-based HRH workforce planning is to model and
project analytically the future supply and requirements of HRH, and to choose the right
interventions that minimize the imbalance. It is a challenging task since it involves many
factors and uncertainties which may include the demography, epidemiology and population
health status, composition and distribution of the health workforce, workforce training issues,
migration of health workers, public expectations, level of economic development, and culture.

In this study, the HRH workforce forecasting was carried out based on the framework
adapted from Birch et al. (2007) and Tomblin-Murphy et al. (2009) as shown in Figure 5.
There are three main modelling components in the framework: the HRH Supply, HRH
Requirement and the Gap models.

Figure 5: Integrated modelling framework of HRH Supply and Requirement Projections

Adapted from Birch et al., 2007; Tomblin-Murphy et al., 2009

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030