Page 70 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 62

3.4.2 Nurse Requirement Projection

In 2016 it was projected 204,608 number of nurses are required to provide health care
services based on needs. If every parameter remains constant, the total nurse requirement
based on population health care needs increases by 32.07 % in the next 14 years. This is
equivalent to an additional of 65,615 nurses from 204,608 nurses required in 2016. In 2030,
the nurse requirement based on needs projected to be 270,223 nurses Table 28. The Need
will increase if the disease burden increases especially for Non-Communicable Disease
(NCD) among the elderly population by 2030.

Table 28: Nurse Requirement Projection Based on Need and Demand, 2016 - 2030

Nurse Requirement Nurse Requirement
(Need) (Demand)
Malaysia
Year Density Density
Population
n per 10,000 n per 10,000
population population
2016 30,875,400 204,608 66.3 199,391 64.6
2017 31,267,400 214,395 68.6 209,084 66.9
2018 31,659,700 223,034 70.4 217,659 68.7
2019 32,051,300 230,235 71.8 224,732 70.1
2020 32,441,200 235,880 72.7 230,277 71.0
2021 32,822,900 240,116 73.2 234,412 71.4
2022 33,200,600 243,986 73.5 238,178 71.7

2023 33,572,100 247,658 73.8 241,743 72.0
2024 33,936,900 251,195 74.0 245,173 72.2
2025 34,294,200 254,567 74.2 248,441 72.4
2026 34,644,700 257,874 74.4 261,644 75.5
2027 34,987,600 261,112 74.6 254,779 72.8
2028 35,322,700 264,257 74.8 257,825 73.0
2029 35,649,400 267,306 75.0 260,774 73.1
2030 35,965,700 270,223 75.1 263,594 73.3

It should be noted that there are two values of total projected requirements. One is the
nurse projected requirement based on the population needs, and the other one is the nurse
projected requirement based on utilisation or demand. Based on available data on health
care utilisation, nurse requirement based on demand projected to be at 199,391 nurses in
2016 and increases to 263,594 in 2030. The total projected nurse requirement based on
demand is slightly lower because it only considers the population that needs the health
services and at the same time seek for the health services. This may even increase further
as Malaysia is becoming an ageing population and elderly needs for health care services is
higher as compared to other age groups. The demand may also increase when the population
has proficient health literacy and empowered to better manage their health and wellbeing.

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030