Page 50 - MOH Supply and Needs-Based Requirement Hyperlink 02032021

EXTENDED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 42

3.1.2 Doctor Requirement Projection

In 2016 it was projected 78,142 number of doctors are required to provide health care
services based on needs. If every parameter remains constant, the total doctor requirement
based on population health care needs increases by 27.9% in the next 14 years. In 2030, the
doctor requirement based on needs projected to be 99,942 doctors (Table 16).

Table 16: Doctor Requirement Projection Based on Needs, 2016 - 2030

Doctor requirement (Need) Doctor requirement (Demand)
Malaysia
Year Density per Density per 10,000
population n 10,000 n
population population
2016 30,875,400 78,142 25.3 62,117 20.1
2017 31,267,400 80,462 25.7 64,194 20.5
2018 31,659,700 82,573 26.1 66,067 20.9
2019 32,051,300 84,465 26.4 67,709 21.1
2020 32,441,200 86,100 26.5 69,107 21.3
2021 32,822,900 87,500 26.7 70,271 21.4
2022 33,200,600 88,859 26.8 71,399 21.5

2023 33,572,100 90,219 26.9 72,524 21.6
2024 33,936,900 91,567 27.0 73,638 21.7
2025 34,294,200 92,905 27.1 74,747 21.8
2026 34,644,700 94,262 27.2 75,873 21.9
2027 34,987,600 95,651 27.3 77,026 22.0
2028 35,322,700 97,053 27.5 78,195 22.1
2029 35,649,400 98,487 27.6 79,391 22.3

2030 35,965,700 99,942 27.8 80,607 22.4

Besides Need, it is also crucial to identify the requirement of doctor based on population
health care demands. Health care demand is a reflection of population health-seeking
behaviour, which translated into the utilisation of health care services. Based on available
data on health care utilisation, doctor requirement based on demand projected to be at
62,117 doctors in 2016 and increases to 80,607 in 2030 (Figure 19). Doctor requirement
based on need projected to be 25.0% higher than requirement based on demand.

SUPPLY AND NEEDS-BASED REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS OF MALAYSIAN HUMAN
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 2016 - 2030