Page 142 - FIGHT AGAINST UNCERTAINTY 5 FEB 2021

Time varying Rt Estimation Tools

Mathematical models of COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia
were applied based on reported daily cases and deaths. The
models estimate the change in the effective reproduction
number, Rt, as well as the impact of non-pharmaceutical
interventions such movement control orders.

Estimates of the change in effective reproduction number (Rt)
were modelled using R programming software. Time varying
Rt estimation tools based on the EpiNow package from the
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine was applied
in this model. This tool uses daily reported case data to infer the
rolling 7-days average for Rt and the forecasting analysis.

In addition to the daily assessment and situational analysis of
epidemic, the models allow for regular monitoring of national-
level Rt as well as state-level Rt, allowing for sub-national risk
assessment.

This information is used to project the course of the epidemic
in the country, and gauge the subsequent healthcare systems
requirements. Since the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic,
this methodology was used to inform the public hospital
services planning and preparedness.

1. Comparison of reported and estimated case occurrence
1 (A) and Rt estimates (B), as produced by EpiNow for
Malaysia.
2
2. Change in the Google mobility (7-day moving average)
measures over the course of the epidemic in Malaysia,
reflecting trends in population movement.

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